Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
